Its Mwanyoha- The Captain has declared

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So I hear that the Captain Raila Amollo Odinga has declared that its Hassan Mwanyoha for Matuga. That Mwanyoha has been crying too much for that seat and now its pay back time.

Addressing delegates from Matuga in a nocturnal meeting held at a Mombasa Hotel the Captain Raila Amollo Odinga said that the seat was Mwanyoha’s for the taking.
Dispatch has it that the move to endorse Mwanyoha was precipitated by the fact that the former immediate MP and Minister Dzipapa Dzipapa Ali Chirau Mwakwere was sponsoring candidates to oppose him, a move that would see ODM’s vote weakened.

The Captain who was in Mombasa to open a Group of African Member Associations International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC) meeting also touched base with the Matuga parliamentary seat contest.

How likely is it that ODM will win the seat?

Well, ODM still enjoys majority support in the province and especially given that the province overwhelmingly voted for ODM in the 2005 referendum and during the controversial general election.

The party has deep pocketed Mombasa based tycoons who can use the money to sway the vote of majority of the people who live below the poverty line.

The Projection of Mwakwere as arrogant, self centered and someone who has never cared about the plight of the common Mwananchi. This is a line that the ODM and his handlers could use to trying to recapture the seat from PNU. The 1 shilling per ferry user per trip forms a good ground to expose Mwakwere as someone who does not care.

ODM can claim that their man Mwanyoha has worn the elections twice and that Mwakwere has been stealing from them.
How unlikely that ODM could lose and PNU wins? It is going to be touted that the PM as the supervisor of government business did not elect any member of parliament from the south coast into the cabinet despite sharing at 50/50 mps from the larger Kwale district which has four MPs. While PNU nominated Mwakwere and Gonzi Rai, as minister and assistant minister respectively, ODM never even gave a mention to Masoud Mwahima and Omar Zonga.

Mwakwere and PNU can brag of having nominated several people into boards of several parastatals including the Kenya Ferry Services, Transport Licensing Bureau amongst others, but ODM cannot brag of having nominated a single person from the south coast to any board.
Joho as good as he is with his money may turn out to be excess baggage to ODM especially given the war against him that he wants to control the province politically and therefore use that influence to expand his business empire.

The are also claims that Mwakwere’s opponent Hassan Mwanyoha is no more than a stooge of Joho who is determined to extend his control to Matuga and the coast province in general.
Division in ODM may also play in Matuga with people like Tourism Minister Najib Balala expressing views that they would support Mwakwere. Given that Balala is most likely going to add to the Poor vs Rich, democrats vs tyrants line it might prove difficult for ODM to take the Matuga seat.

ODM may also have to contend with where Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka throws his weight especially because of the crucial Kamba vote mainly from Shimba hills.


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